Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting along U.S. Coasts.
Abstract
Probabilistic forecasts of hurricane-driven storm surge are essential for communicating risk to the public, officials, and disaster response teams. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)’s operational Probabilistic Surge (P-Surge) model generates ensembles by perturbing a storm’s trajectory, intensity, and size using historical forecast error distributions. The P-Surge system has been shown to make skillful probabilistic predictions, but there are some areas where improvements can be made with regards to the simplifications and assumptions embedded in the ocean and flooding dynamics, hurricane wind field forcing, and statistical evaluation methods. We explore such advances in this presentation and evaluate the performance for some significant landfalling hurricane events.
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