Local to Basin Scale Hurricane Flood Hazards in a Changing Climate (30 min)
Reza Marsooli (Stevens Institute of Technology, USA)
Numerical Modeling of Tsunami Inundation in Urban Area using Sub-Grid Scale Drag Force Mode (20 min)
Nobuki Fukui (DPRI, Kyoto University)
Exploring disaster science using agent based modelling (20 min)
Thomas O'Shea (University of Bristol, UK)
Abstracts
Reza Marsool
In the first part of the talk, I present and discuss the spatial variation of storm surge and wave heights induced by historical hurricanes in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The second part of the talk focuses on the impact of sea level rise and TC climatology change on flood hazards in the end of 21st century. I present and discuss future changes in hurricane flood return periods along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf (of Mexico) Coasts. The last part of the talk focuses on the impact of climate change on local-scale hurricane storm surge and wave hazards in Jamaica Bay – a highly urbanized lagoonal estuary in New York City. I present and discuss the effects of sea level rise on surface waves and the extent of coastal flooding over the bay’s floodplains.
Thomas O'Shea
Here outlined is the research undertaken for the development of a relatively robust and systematic, multi-disciplinary, modelling framework (the Hydro-Agent Based Model, ‘HABM’) for analysing and evaluating the nature of vulnerability to, and capacity for, flood hazard within complex modern societies. This framework possesses the scope to go beyond the current aggregative assessment systems for flood risk, by establishing the traditional sub-systematic parameters of environmental risk and then using these to model enhanced metrics for the influence of affected individuals’ responsive decision making in the origination of further, potentially influential, emergent behaviours within the hazard system which will, ultimately; contribute to a disaster or it’s avoidance.
Nobuki Fukui
This study developed Drag Force Model (DFM) and individual Drag Force Model (iDFM) as an urban roughness parameterization to obtain acceptable accuracy in medium resolution tsunami inundation model based on physical modeling. The model treats the effect of structures as grid-averaged drag force. The validation DFM and iDFM is conducted using numerical simulation and physical modeling of tsunami inundation targeting available tsunami inundation experiments.
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